第一百日（1）作屎的老猫（第4/10页）

On the other hand， in his accurate semi-analytical secular perturbation theory (Laskar 1988)， Laskar finds that large and irregular variations can appear in the eccentricities and inclinations of the terrestrial planets， especially of Mercury and Mars on a time-scale of several 109 yr (Laskar 1996). The results of Laskar's secular perturbation theory should be confirmed and investigated by fully numerical integrations.

In this paper we present preliminary results of six long-term numerical integrations on all nine planetary orbits， covering a span of several 109 yr， and of two other integrations covering a span of ± 5 × 1010 yr. The total elapsed time for all integrations is more than 5 yr， using several dedicated PCs and workstations. One of the fundamental conclusions of our long-term integrations is that Solar system planetary motion seems to be stable in terms of the Hill stability mentioned above， at least over a time-span of ± 4 Gyr. Actually， in our numerical integrations the system was far more stable than what is defined by the Hill stability criterion: not only did no close encounter happen during the integration period， but also all the planetary orbital elements have been confined in a narrow region both in time and frequency domain， though planetary motions are stochastic. Since the purpose of this paper is to exhibit and overview the results of our long-term numerical integrations， we show typical example figures as evidence of the very long-term stability of Solar system planetary motion. For readers who have more specific and deeper interests in our numerical results， we have prepared a webpage (access )， where we show raw orbital elements， their low-pass filtered results， variation of Delaunay elements and angular momentum deficit， and results of our simple time–frequency analysis on all of our integrations.

In Section 2 we briefly explain our dynamical model， numerical method and initial conditions used in our integrations. Section 3 is devoted to a description of the quick results of the numerical integrations. Very long-term stability of Solar system planetary motion is apparent both in planetary positions and orbital elements. A rough estimation of numerical errors is also given. Section 4 goes on to a discussion of the longest-term variation of planetary orbits using a low-pass filter and includes a discussion of angular momentum deficit. In Section 5， we present a set of numerical integrations for the outer five planets that spans ± 5 × 1010 yr. In Section 6 we also discuss the long-term stability of the planetary motion and its possible cause.

2 Description of the numerical integrations

（本部分涉及比较复杂的积分计算，作者君就不贴上来了，贴上来了起点也不一定能成功显示。）

2.3 Numerical method

We utilize a second-order Wisdom–Holman symplectic map as our main integration method (Wisdom & Holman 1991; Kinoshita， Yoshida & Nakai 1991) with a special start-up procedure to reduce the truncation error of angle variables，‘warm start’(Saha & Tremaine 1992， 1994).

The stepsize for the numerical integrations is 8 d throughout all integrations of the nine planets (N±1，2，3)， which is about 1/11 of the orbital period of the innermost planet (Mercury). As for the determination of stepsize， we partly follow the previous numerical integration of all nine planets in Sussman & Wisdom (1988， 7.2 d) and Saha & Tremaine (1994， 225/32 d). We rounded the decimal part of the their stepsizes to 8 to make the stepsize a multiple of 2 in order to reduce the accumulation of round-off error in the computation processes. In relation to this， Wisdom & Holman (1991) performed numerical integrations of the outer five planetary orbits using the symplectic map with a stepsize of 400 d， 1/10.83 of the orbital period of Jupiter. Their result seems to be accurate enough， which partly justifies our method of determining the stepsize. However， since the eccentricity of Jupiter (～0.05) is much smaller than that of Mercury (～0.2)， we need some care when we compare these integrations simply in terms of stepsizes.